Hormuz’s Multiplayer Game: Iran, the Gulf and the Global Stakes

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most vital energy chokepoints, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Prior to the disruption of 2026, the security of the waterway was crucial not just for the Middle East as the level of trade there accounted for about 1/5 of all global oil and LNG trade.

Growths indicate that Hormuz isn’t merely a two-way battle rival amongst Iran and the United States. Gulf exporters, Asian purchasers of energy, shipping companies and international governments are all interested in maintaining commercial commerce. Crude resumed a healthy flow through the strait in September and LNG traffic grew, though security issues remain.

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Iran and the Strategic Chokepoint

Given Iran’s geographic location, it enjoys a huge leverage over shipping traffic through Hormuz. Energy transport was severely impeded during the 2026 war EIA estimates that oil traffic declined significantly throughout the second quarter but bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2026. This makes the waterway suitable not just for commercial purposes but a key security concern.

In the broader conflict and the diplomatic talks, sea security is linked to the conflict between Tehran and Washington. On October 1, Iran was seeking to have Hormuz reopened as part of talks that proposed offering it some relief, Reuters reported, but disagreements, particularly, between Iran and the other nation over September 1 sanctions remained unresolved.

Gulf States Build Routes Around Hormuz

GCC producers have been relying on infrastructure on the other side of the strait to minimise their exposure. Saudi Arabia has the East-West pipeline to take crude to its port of Yanbu at the Red Sea, and the UAE has the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah. Such routes cannot be a substitute for the entire Hormuz route but they give flexibility in case of disruptions.

Shipping strategies have involved ship-to-ship moves, and other loading points. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline restarted, with a corresponding increase in exports via Yanbu, and ADNOC upped the frequency of shipments outside of the Hormuz route. The measures illustrate that the energy companies are adapting logistics, and are not solely dependent on one maritime corridor.

Global Energy and Trade Stakes

The impacts are not limited to Gulf producers. The UAE and Qatar are large LNG exporters and Asian economies are key markets for the export of energy from the Gulf. EIA data indicate that approximately 83% of LNG passing through the Hormuz area in 2024 was to Asian countries, including India, South Korea and China.

All disruptions are therefore relevant to global prices, freight rate and energy security. Military tension and shipping risk have plagued the shipping industry, but September flows have made much of recovery.

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