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Riyadh Strikes Test the Strength of the Mecca Pact

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Mecca Pact

Saudi Arabia is also facing the challenge to its fledgling security alliances whether commitments made through diplomacy can correspond to the security it needs when the threats are heightened. 

New attention has been drawn to the Mecca Pact in Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, as it is reported that infrastructure is being targeted, such as energy and aviation plants and structures. But the agreement’s credibility will partly be determined by the members’ ability to get along under stress.

Collective Defence Must Mean More Than a Promise

When an attack does not conform to conventional warfare, there is no other aspect of mutual-defence that presents a more difficult question. Unattributable damages and problems about intent and proper response can result from drone, missile and Proxy-related action. 

The challenge in the implementation of the Mecca Pact will be to ensure there are concrete rules for consultation, quick exchange of information and joint response, without any incident killing the initiative through uncontrolled escalation. Credibility on an alliance requires determination and self-control.

Three Partners Must Turn Strength Into Coordination

Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan have different strategic strengths but the synergies between the three cannot be taken for granted. Good defence depends on a mix of: warning compatible systems; good communications; combined threat assessments; command agreement. 

The defence factories of Türkiye and Pakistan could offer a larger contribution to a security framework within the region with Saudi Arabia offering a centrepiece for safeguarding the infrastructure in the heart of the Gulf. How effectively they function as a whole in the event of a crisis, will determine the impact of the fight.

Economic Security Will Shape the Pact’s Legacy

The implications are not limited to matters of military credibility. The investment aspirations of Saudi Arabia hinge on trust that the energy installations, transport infrastructure and urban centres are resilient enough to deal with the persistent threats. There might be disruption which would raise the cost of insurance, nervousness and uncertainty for investors and confusion for their long term plans of development. 

If this agreement improves the region’s crisis management and prevention efforts, it could help to make the region more resilient. However, the policy makers need to refrain from using collective defence as an alternative to diplomatic measures. Long-term benefits will be found in caring for human and infrastructure assets without further attacks, and also in preventing the regional conflicts from escalating to a wider conflict.

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