Beyond The Borders: How A Saudi-Israel Normalisation Deal Could Change Everything

Most of the Biden administration’s initiatives – from infrastructure funding to support for green transformation to backing Ukraine – have been big, bold and ambitious.

Now, Washington is working on a potentially game changer deal: the Saudi-Israel normalisation. However, there are a number of complications that could derail the negotiations.

But if a deal brings together the Middle East’s strongest military and most technologically advanced power and the region’s strongest economic power, it would be a major win for the US.

There Is A Substantial Price, However

By organising a soft alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the Biden administration can rely on the two countries to anchor the vital region economically and militarily.

There is a substantial price, however. Saudi Arabia wants a US security guarantee and US technology to build a nuclear energy industry.

The negotiations encompass a US-controlled uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia, which Washington is known to have never facilitated in another country.

Security Umbrella Will Necessitate Careful Language

The security guarantee is reportedly going to contain just a softer commitment to take action if Saudi Arabia is attacked – and not a version of NATO’s Article 5 guarantee.

Nonetheless, the security umbrella will necessitate careful language to ensure the clause is not involved if Saudi Arabia precipitates a crisis.

Furthermore, it would have to include some assurances that the Saudis will exclude Chinese military facilities from its territory and accommodate US interests on the price of oil.

Deal Could Make Greater Progress On Palestinian Rights

The largest challenge is with Israel. The normalisation deal would be concluded with the most extreme right-wing government in Israel’s history.

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But the US and Saudi Arabia have a lot of leverage as Israel needs this agreement more than they do – and, in particular, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

If Washington and Riyadh work together, they might be able to pull off an alliance that could make greater progress on Palestinian rights.