Ukraine war allowing wider recognition of GCC’s soft power

Following over 18 months of fighting, how has the Ukraine war affected the political, economic and geopolitical status of GCC players?

Shortly after the introduction of G7 sanctions in May 2023, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Arab League. This gesture offered attention to two different situations.

First, it allowed wider recognition of the Arab World’s economic power and its importance to both parties of the conflict owing to their growing international voice.

Second, the centrality of energy supply to the conflict was acknowledged. Improved ties with the GCC might help Ukraine weaken Russia’s voice at the table and tilt the balance in its favour.

Russia seems to be well aware of the importance of GCC countries to its own economy and the sway they have with the West as energy suppliers.

Importance Of The Gulf Actors Within Worldwide Transformations

A number of regional actors have now started diversifying their politics and economies, responding to the new geopolitical circumstances introduced by the war.

The BRICS Summit in August 2023 ended with extending invitations to Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join the economic forum not centred on Western powers.

These are examples of the importance of the Gulf actors in worldwide transformations, further strengthening their positions as economic and political forces.

Nevertheless, the consequences of the months-long Ukraine war present some challenges to the Gulf region, just like the rest of the world.

Gulf States Turning Into Credible Mediators

Food security was already a major concern due to climate change and the global epidemic. Things started turning sour after Russia recently suspended its participation in a grain deal.

The disruption highlights how vulnerable global supply chains are, affecting the food security of the GCC and triggering worrying food price inflation.

However, strategic thinking can turn these circumstances into an opening – as food security may further enhance GCC’s influence since they are credible mediators in the disagreement.

While Saudi Arabia got to flex its diplomatic muscle in August by hosting peace talks, Riyadh reportedly assisted with a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine in September 2022.

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Meanwhile, the UAE has been playing essential roles in humanitarian aid. It delivered 250 tonnes of relief supplies to Ukraine in August, in addition to 30 tonnes of aid in March 2022.