If there is to be a breakthrough, Syria’s three regions need to be reconciled

Kazakhstan, a Central Asian country and former Soviet republic, surprised the world on Wednesday with its decision to stop hosting talks aimed at finding a solution to the Syrian conflict. The basis for the decision was the meetings have achieved their purpose.

But in reality, the world is yet to find any political solution to the violence. A military solution is also not in the current picture as the regime isn’t ready for a faceoff against the Turks in the northwest and the Americans in the northeast.

Moreover, neither Turkey nor the US is ready to engage with Syria on the battlegrounds.

Syria’s Three Regions Need To Join Hands

Today, Syria is divided into three areas. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) controls the northeast. The Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) is the force behind the SDF, but Turkey sees this group as the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.

Recognised as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and the EU, PKK conducts operations on Turkish soil. While the SDF operates under American protection, the northwest is under Turkish protection.

The rest is controlled by the Assad regime, with some portions run by Iran and others by Russia.

If there is ever to be a breakthrough, these three regions would need to be reconciled. If two areas decide to join hands, the third one would be pressurised to follow suit. There are three possible scenarios, with each one of them immensely difficult to realise.

Therefore, the situation would most likely remain the same for a while.

Three Scenarios For An Unlikely Breakthrough

The first scenario is going to please a lot of parties. It’s the regime – SDF agreement. This would be accepted by the Russians, Gulf countries and even the US. But the various talks held between the regime and the PYD resulted in no breakthrough.

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The second possible scenario is also equally difficult. It involves an extension of the discussions in Kazakhstan. Basically, a Turkey – Bashar Assad rapprochement is at the centre of this scenario.

And the third and best solution is an agreement between the northeast and the northwest. This is also pretty difficult to realise as Turkey does not feel the need to make any concessions to the Kurds. Nevertheless, it’s the best option as it will create enough pressure on Assad.