IMF Forecasts UAE as Regional Growth Leader with 4.8% GDP Expansion

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is projected to have the highest GDP growth in the Middle East and Central Asia in 2025 by the International Monetary Fund, with an anticipated growth rate of a hearty 4.8%. This expansion has placed the UAE ahead of other countries in the region, which shows a great boost in recovery that is based on both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon industries. Analysts point out that this positive trend is being fueled by the economic diversification of the country, calculated investments and robust tourism and financial services business. According to the latest UAE Current News, the IMF cautions, though, that the world uncertainties, probable price changes of oil and geopolitical tensions in the region may affect the prospects.

Strong Economic Drivers Fueling UAE Growth

IMF attributes projected growth in the UAE to be due to both structural and sectoral reasons. Non oil industries such as tourism, construction, finance and technology have continued to undergo a sustained growth with government reforms and foreign investment programs. In the meantime, hydrocarbon production has also experienced a resurgence due to the rise in the performance and OPEC+ deals, which have further increased GDP.

Also, moderate inflation of 1.6% in 2025 has served to keep consumer purchasing power steady, and fiscal policies and the current economic diversification programs have elevated resiliency to global economic uncertainties. Analysts feel that the ongoing emphasis on infrastructure projects, green energy investments and international trade deals will keep this going over the next few years and that the IMF expects the growth rate to continue to rise by about 5% in 2026, should current trends continue.

Regional Context and Economic Outlook

Economic performance is still resilient in the region of the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) amid global uncertainty. The IMF has also increased the regional GDP growth projection to 3.3% by 2025, compared to the previous forecasts of 2.6% Increased production and high demand of the commodities favor the growth of the oil-exporting countries, whereas the oil-importing countries enjoy the benefits of the tourism recovery, remittances, and the growing agricultural production.

However, risks remain. Potential damage to international trade, harsher financial conditions, and international geopolitics could slow the momentum down. IMF emphasizes prudence in the fiscal policies, structural policies and better policy frameworks as the means to boost growth in the long run. With the UAE case in question, its ability to balance its reliance on hydrocarbon and a non-oil based economy that has been registering its fastest growth in the region will remain central to its efforts to achieve the rank of the fastest growth in the region.

IMF Tweet Highlight

The official tweet of the IMF MENA states that in 2025, the UAE is still showing impressive economic strength, with a projected growth in GDP, rated as the top in the region. The tweet highlights that long-term policy changes, infrastructure investments, and diversification efforts are some of the factors behind such a solid performance.

IMF 2025 Growth Forecast for MENAP

🇩🇿 Algeria: 3.4%
🇪🇬 Egypt: 4.3%
🇮🇷 Iran: 0.6%
🇮🇶 Iraq: 0.5%
🇯🇴 Jordan: 2.7%
🇰🇼 Kuwait: 2.6%
🇲🇦 Morocco: 4.4%
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 2.7%
🇶🇦 Qatar: 2.9%
🇸🇦 Saudi: 4.0%
🇸🇴 Somalia: 3.0%
🇸🇩 Sudan: 3.2%
🇦🇪 UAE: 4.8%
🇾🇪 Yemen: -1.5%https://t.co/KPNIebZFlI pic.twitter.com/NCq1WHFkyQ

— IMF Middle East & North Africa (@IMFinMENA) October 21, 2025